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Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby Carol on Thu Apr 24, 2014 4:20 pm

From Ajahn Sugato's blog

The thing is…

I think we’re doomed. No, really. In the good old-fashioned apocalyptic sense. Not in the normal existential sense that death is a natural part of life. In the sense that we have taken this beautiful home and trashed it and soon it will all be gone.

I am talking about climate change. Sure, there are plenty of other sources of apocalypse—water depletion, pollution, peak oil, population—but climate change is the spectre that hangs over them all.

And I have struggled, and am struggling, with how to articulate this. I am, of course, not a scientist; so I want to avoid giving second-hand, inferior accounts of the facts. If you are wondering why I think this is so serious, when the mainstream media coverage hardly mentions the real problems, I cannot recommend a better article that Joe Rohm’s An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts: How We Know Inaction Is the Gravest Threat Humanity Faces. Read it, please. This is one of the few articles I have seen that unflinchingly looks at the actual scientific predictions, and considers the overall impact of runaway climate change. It is a little outdated now; but safe to say, things have not got better.

One of the knowledges the Buddha claimed to possess was that he could see “where all paths lead”. It doesn’t take any special powers to see that the path we are on leads to the end of civilization. We simply cannot survive in any meaningful way a temperature rise of 4 or 6 degrees, together with the myriad of other calamities wreaked by climate change. Civilizations collapse. It is normal. And they collapse because they overuse their resources. The difference is that we are doing it on a global scale.

So what are we to do? I have been involved in speaking out in conventional ways on this for a long time. But politics has failed us. Just recently I was part of an ARRCC interfaith delegation to Canberra where we spoke with Greg Hunt and a range of other politicians. It was depressing, as you might expect. Not a single one of the politicians, so far as I could see, was prepared to face the facts. I spoke to a series of them about this specific issue, saying that the course we are on leads to the end of civilization. Nobody said I was wrong on the facts, or too extreme. They were just unable to process the information. Even those most active on the issues, like Mark Dreyfus for example, simply had no intention to talk about making the kinds of changes that are really needed, like, say, leaving the coal in the ground. Many of those in the Government have simply no interest in or grasp of the basic science. We were told by a sitting member of the Liberal party that there has been no conversation on climate change in the party since 2010.

Our current government has launched what is probably the most single-minded, vicious attack on the environment and science of any Australian government in history. Yet we elected them.

The plain reality is that all of the activism that has been done for decades is a complete failure. No matter how many solar panels we put up, or how efficient our light bulbs become, the carbon in the atmosphere keeps going up, as fast or faster. Now we are at 402 ppm, higher than anytime in the past 800,000 years, at least. And so who cares? Who is actually prepared to change anything?

The IPCC claims that making the necessary changes would be incredibly cheap: the median annual growth of consumption over this century would decline by a mere 0.06%.Yet even this trifling sum is too much. To avoid paying it we have toppled governments and generated a whole new industry of denialism.

I simply don’t think that we will make the necessary changes. Of course, we can: that is not the issue. And perhaps we will. But I am an empiricist. I look at the evidence and try to make a reasonable extrapolation. And to extrapolate a survivable future, we have to assume a massive change in behaviour and values, and there is simply no evidence of this.

To forestall objections, I am not suggesting that we should do nothing. On the contrary, we should do much more. But I just don’t see any reason to think it will really make any difference, except that we get to make some good kamma. Which is reason enough, but is not the feelgood message that a good activist should be sending. So I’m not very interested in conventional activism, although I still do it. I think that we need to step back and look at the big picture, to realign our values.

In future articles I will go into details more. But here I want to just broach the basic issue. Regardless of what we think is the most likely outcome, there is at least a distinct possibility that we are headed towards the global collapse of civilization in our lifetime, or our children’s lifetime. We need to find a way to talk about this, to accept it as a reality. To ask: “What are our values, our lives, if this is where we are headed?”

And these are, at their heart, spiritual questions. I hope that we can have a sane conversation about this. And I hope that we can begin to find acceptance.
Practitioners who cultivate the personal realization of buddha knowledge dwell in the bliss of whatever is present and do not abandon their practice.
~Lankavatara Sutra
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby desert_woodworker on Thu Apr 24, 2014 10:34 pm

Carol,

The data itself is (are) quite beautiful. The implications are not.

The trapping of IR radiation by more and more extra CO2 is a sad prospect for the Earth's systems, who/which are not used to rapid change.

Just have a look at the Keeling Curve, the graph of growth of concentration of CO2 in the lower atmosphere, where we live, measured at 10000 feet on Mauna Loa on the Big Island of Hawai'i since 1958. A fantastically important data series, of continuous monitoring, showing the effect of burning fossil fuels. "Only" about 58 percent of the emitted CO2 goes to increase the tropospheric concentration of CO2. The rest goes into acidification of rainfall, and seawater, causing bleaching and dissolution of ocean coral reefs and other ocean animals that grow Calcium Carbonate (sea-) shells.

This graph may raise some questions. I hope so.

--Joe

ps The red line is monthly averages of CO2 concentration, which goes up and down a little during the 12 months of each year due to photosynthesis by green plants in the Northern Hemisphere, showing more uptake of CO2 by vegetation in warm months, and less in cold months, being well-mixed where the measurements are taken (about 20 deg N. Latitude in Hawai'i). The dark line is a yearly average, and smooths-out the effects of photosynthesis.

co2_data_mauna_loa_Hawaii.png
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby Michaeljc on Thu Apr 24, 2014 11:55 pm

This is a great subject which I enjoy discussing. I hope we can work through it a rational, balanced manner. Deal? I am not a complete sceptic looking for an argument. I want to know the truth.

I believe that there is an awful lot more going on than is being portrayed in the model. It is too simplistic.

Sometimes we need to get off the surfboard and take an independent look.

More later.

Cheers

m
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby desert_woodworker on Fri Apr 25, 2014 12:07 am

Michael,

An ideal way to get off the surf-board -- or is it the hockey-stick? -- is to look also at the isotopic ratios of the CO2, over time.

The isotopic ratios tell the truth that the increase of CO2 is due to the burning of fossil fuels. If you understand this, great. If not, let me know, and I can give the 30-second "lesson". Meanwhile, I can refer you to our resource here in the States, the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). The isotopic ratios data are there. Feast on it!

--Joe

Michaeljc wrote:This is a great subject which I enjoy discussing.
"The abundance of Nature is not a matter of its 'providing' ". -- William James, c. 1901.
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby Michaeljc on Fri Apr 25, 2014 5:13 am

Joe -

Yes, I understand isotope ratios. I am a geologist, remember :) I have no dispute over the increase or origin of CO2. The subject of climate change has many facets. I don't have the energy to address all at once. It will be in dribs and drabs. If only we had a crystal ball. I fear that I will not live long enough to see this pan itself out. The next 10 years are going to be very interesting. I hope to last that long.

My discussion will relate mostly to Earth's regulatory feedback systems. They have coped with many 'catastrophic' events much more rapid and extreme than what we see today and have 'normalised' Earth to the point that life persists. Without these feedback systems we would not be here today. Earth would have spiralled into extreme heat, or extreme cold. My evidence is contained in what we call the 'rock record'. Sedimentary rocks are a window into the past and the past is a window into the future.

I have not read all of the latest IPCC report. I need to. But so far it appears to address the impact of temperature increase over the next 100 years. Along with this there is an assumption that temperatures will increase. To me this is still only a 50:50 bet. According to the leading climatology institutions mean temperatures have not increased throughout the last 10 years. I don’t see any intense studies to explain why this is the case. I have read that some computer generated models used by IPCC on temperature increase over the next 50 years have been tweaked downwards because of this. Of course, 10 years is nowhere enough time, but if this trend were to continue, what then folks? What if temperature begins to decline? I would not be at all surprised if it did.

Enough for now

m
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby partofit22 on Fri Apr 25, 2014 5:40 am

I love the simplicity of his opening lines.. "The thing is ... I think we're doomed- No, really-" And we might be- Doomed- Even still ... it's no reason to give up doing- Anything- Or nothing-

Top stories today:

Wichita Falls looks for other sources of water-
Orange crops are dying-
Increase in wildfires-
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby desert_woodworker on Fri Apr 25, 2014 8:48 pm

Michael,

Great! Maybe I'd forgotten that you are a scientist. I think I did not know you are a Geologist, in any case.

Well, then, yes!, you'd have "isotopic ratios" well in hand. :)

How many times, when up on Observatory mountains, I wish I had a Geologist along... .

Here's a snippet -- summary, really -- of an article I just saw in SCIENCE, released today. It tells of how a crystallograher and a grad student looked at temperature records in their spare time and found a flaw in some code that does data-smoothing. This has been a culprit and source of artificially low temperatures reported in the Arctic, and hence therefore for too-low global temperatures as well. This fault can now be fixed, and it may have to occasion the IPCC to revise some data, details, and projections of their just-released 2014 report.

April 2014
> Kintisch, 344 (6182): 348

Science 25 April 2014:
Vol. 344 no. 6182 p. 348
DOI: 10.1126/science.344.6182.348

News & Analysis

Climate Science

Climate Outsider Finds Missing Global Warming

by Eli Kintisch

Major climate data sets have underestimated the rate of global warming in the last 15 years owing largely to poor data in the Arctic, the planet's fastest warming region. A dearth of temperature stations there is one culprit; another is a data-smoothing algorithm that has been improperly tuning down temperatures there. The findings come from an unlikely source: a crystallographer and graduate student working on the temperature analyses in their spare time.

...And here is the link to this free summary article:

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/344/6182/348.summary

--Joe

Michaeljc wrote:Joe -

Yes, I understand isotope ratios. I am a geologist, remember
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby Michaeljc on Sat Apr 26, 2014 4:50 am

Joe

I do admit that I look deeper into this subject through a combination of gut feeling and some knowledge of past climate change as displayed in the rock record. Has air and sea warmed over the last 100 years? Yes, without doubt. Is CO2 the main culprit? I question that it is.

Within the last month as study has found that aerosols from China and India are having a major influence over weather patterns in the Pacific, and maybe even the Atlantic. I feel that the impact of air pollution is underrated.

Here is another extract:

The report is the first global comparison of temperature between the historic voyage of HMS Challenger (1872-1876) and modern data obtained by ocean-probing robots now continuously reporting temperatures via the global Argo program. Scientists have previously determined that nearly 90 percent of the excess heat added to Earth's climate system since the 1960s has been stored in the oceans. The new study, published in the April 1 advance online edition of Nature Climate Change and coauthored by John Gould of the United Kingdom-based National Oceanography Centre and John Gilson of Scripps Oceanography, pushes the ocean warming trend back much earlier.
"The significance of the study is not only that we see a temperature difference that indicates warming on a global scale, but that the magnitude of the temperature change since the 1870s is twice that observed over the past 50 years,"
said Roemmich, co-chairman of the International Argo Steering Team. "This implies that the time scale for the warming of the ocean is not just the last 50 years but at least the last 100 years


I can cite these sources if you so wish. They are both legitimate studies published in journals.
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby Michaeljc on Sat Apr 26, 2014 5:35 am

ipcc-temp-versus-co2.png


I am going to be adding to this post over the next 24 hrs or so. There are a number of issues regarding this chart that are worth addressing.

"The significance of the study is not only that we see a temperature difference that indicates warming on a global scale, but that the magnitude of the temperature change since the 1870s is twice that observed over the past 50 years,"


This quote is from the above post. What this implies is that by 1960 the sea had gained 50% of its temperature increase accumulated between 1870 until the present day. Yet, by 1960 CO2 had only accumulated 15% of its increase throughout this same time period.

Puting this another way: Sea temperatures increased at the same rate during a 15% increase (of total since 1920) in CO2 as it did during a 85% increase (of total since 1920) in CO2.

What drove the increase in sea temperature between 1870 and 1960?

Now, according to the IPCC CO2 starts to increase significantly at around 1925. Global temperature tends upwards in tandem. There is a rapid increase of about 15% 0f the total temperature increase over a period of 10 years starting in 1935, followed by a rapid decline of the same magnitude and rate. What drove this decline?

Then we come to post- 2000. CO2 continues to increase yet temperature remain relatively static. What is driving this? Should this scenario continue over the next, say 5 years, this topic is going to become even more controversial and bitter.
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby desert_woodworker on Sat Apr 26, 2014 2:21 pm

Speaking more generally about our topic, potential and actual warming is not the only phenomenon available and open to our consideration.

The Great Experiment of our changing the chemistry of the atmosphere can naturally have other effects besides Greenhouse warming.

Acidification of sea water is one of the results.

It's shown that "only" 58% of the CO2 dumped into the atmosphere as exhaust remains in the atmosphere. So, then, almost half of it migrates elsewhere after a time. Where does it go? It goes into solution in liquid water to form a weak acid. It gets into fresh water and into salt water. The pH of waters thus becomes lower. Some also goes into soil -- and of course, seasonally -- into vegetation (more constantly in the Tropics).

As the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere accelerates as it's been doing, so does the concentration of carbonic acid in waters.

I note as an aside that human blood has a pH that resides in a very tightly controlled slightly "basic" (not acidic) range, from 7.35 - 7.45, with the ideal being about 7.40. Acidosis in Humans sets in by 7.2, and death occurs at 7.0 (where 7.0 is exactly "neutral"). Waters can control their pH a little, by the effect of some natural buffers, but in shallow water, the pH can still become lower. This is affecting the biology of coral reefs worldwide, and the habitat they provide for many species.

I don't think I've assembled a complete catalog of the effects to note from the changes made to the atmosphere by our Effluent Society. But the Great Experiment continues and accelerates. The list may grow over time.

--Joe
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby Michaeljc on Sat Apr 26, 2014 10:02 pm

This is an awfully big subject. I was going to come to ocean acidification in due course.

Unfortunately published and interpreted data is heavily weighted towards CO2. I am searching for more quantitive data on increasing ocean acidification, atmospheric nitrous oxide, methane, and air pollution throughout the last century. If you can find some Joe, I would appreciate it. I don’t find any quantitive data on the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases either. What is the annual magnitude of their insulation over the last 50 years (or last year even)?

Where is the quantitive data on the increase in oceanic carbonic acid and anthropogenic atmospheric methane? Please, someone find me some.

What the ICCP does and does not say is also an important issue which I will address.

m
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby Carol on Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:15 pm

Michaeljc wrote:I can cite these sources if you so wish. They are both legitimate studies published in journals.


Yes, it would be helpful if you would do so.

Thanks.
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby Linda Anderson on Sun Apr 27, 2014 3:38 pm

Sorry, I can't cite the sources. I read a credible (to me) piece which said that the earth is actually getting colder, that the attention to warming is misleading.... that Europe could suffer a devastating ice age. Another, which said that if the oceans die, the planet will not survive... there is evidence of this happening. So there is more than the CO2 issue at work? Yet, AU is so hot it could be uninhabitable. Is there such a thing as a pole shift?

At any rate, I am deeply concerned that there is no way to stop this. Even the farmlands are dying, the soil is collapsing. Oh dear, it is the logical conclusion to greed.

linda
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby desert_woodworker on Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:16 pm

Linda,

On the other hand... . :)

We're in this together, the-Earth-and-us. In fact, we're not even only "together", we are of the Earth, and it is of us. Why, the Earth is even the accumulated detritus by-product of processes in defunct stars.

There have been terrible extinctions before. Several well-known ones are the 65-million-year-ago event, and the one 250 million years ago.

There are great submerged super-volcanoes, and continental super-volcanoes that can produce future mass extinctions, as well as the present mass-extinction that human population-growth and human activities is causing now. Asteroids or comets can and will collide. And secular (long-term...) changes in Earth's orbit about the Sun can and will produce future Ice-Age and future ice-free "Tropical" climates, all with different biota that will thrive in the new conditions.

But my point is that we are involved in a learning experience, of Earth-and-us, with no separation. Human Greed and Ignorance may finally be mitigated, or forever expunged, if better understanding and realization is achieved (especially by Evolution (but that is a very slow process; however, very deep). It's still very early days, and a privilege to be here, near the start of things, or in the middle of things.

--Joe

Linda Anderson wrote:At any rate, I am deeply concerned that there is no way to stop this. Even the farmlands are dying, the soil is collapsing. Oh dear, it is the logical conclusion to greed.
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby Linda Anderson on Sun Apr 27, 2014 5:22 pm

Yes, Joe, we are in it together. Heart opening to know the earth will continue, that stardust is stardust. We may not altar the course, but we can ride the wave with grace. I've always thought that the practice is no longer about personal enlightenment, but with participating fully with this mystery. My first teacher liked to tilt things by saying that we are food for the mineral kingdom. That is a big view, one needs to be strong to take it on... and one that is needed to lend a hand to others in crisis. Still, on a personal note, I grieve for the generations coming along. Yes, that's getting a bit ahead, but there's that too. Perhaps in ten thousand kalpas, they will whisper about how greed extinguished itself... and then I consider no time.... except being.
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby desert_woodworker on Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:43 pm

Michael,

I'll share whatever falls into my hands, but "searching" sounds like work! I'm (experimentally-) retired.

(but, once a Scientist, ...always a working-slob). ;)

Important topics, surely. I will send or post what I find. Grist for the Mill. Mist for the Grill!
(use renewables on the barbie, BTW, not Propane). ;-)

Cheers,

--Joe

Michaeljc wrote:I am searching for more quantitive data on increasing ocean acidification, atmospheric nitrous oxide, methane, and air pollution throughout the last century. If you can find some Joe, I would appreciate it. I don’t find any quantitive data on the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases either. What is the annual magnitude of their insulation over the last 50 years (or last year even)?

Where is the quantitive data on the increase in oceanic carbonic acid and anthropogenic atmospheric methane? Please, someone find me some.
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby desert_woodworker on Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:53 pm

Michael,

I'll share whatever falls into my hands, but "searching" sounds like 'work'! I'm retired (experimentally).

(but, once a Scientist, always ...a working-slob). ;)

Important topics, surely. I will send or post what I find. Grist for the Mill. Mist for the Grill!
(use renewables on the barbie, BTW, not Propane). ;-)

Cheers!

--Joe

ps The situation w.r.t. "aerosols" is, well, err-r, unclear. Likewise with "clouds" (as mitigating media). Jim Hanson is still working on those, I think. He was Director of the NASA institute (NASA-GISS) where I worked in NY, and I saw him every day for years. A great guy, w/ great integrity, and I heard his fine talks and Colloquia.

Michaeljc wrote:I am searching for more quantitive data on increasing ocean acidification, atmospheric nitrous oxide, methane, and air pollution throughout the last century. If you can find some Joe, I would appreciate it. I don’t find any quantitive data on the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases either. What is the annual magnitude of their insulation over the last 50 years (or last year even)?

Where is the quantitive data on the increase in oceanic carbonic acid and anthropogenic atmospheric methane? Please, someone find me some.
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby Carol on Sat May 03, 2014 12:23 am

Climate summit.jpg
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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby Carol on Tue May 06, 2014 11:20 pm

Watch to the end after it stops briefly at 2014.

Time History of atmospheric CO2 from 800,000 years ago to January 2014

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Re: Climate Change - Ajahn Sujato's Blog

Postby desert_woodworker on Tue May 06, 2014 11:46 pm

Carol,

An "s" has crept into the URL you used between the youtube brackets. You just need to edit your post to remove the "s" of "https", and it ought to work. Secure-protocol is not called for.

What a fine visualization. I've only seen the static version, previously (graphs). This is like rubbing salt into a wound (ouch!).

Thanks for this fine post. --Joe

Carol wrote:[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UatUDnFmNTY[/youtube]

P.S. Sorry I can't get the Youtube function to work ... but you can click the URL to see it
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